Dominion: The Aggro Pile Deck

Aggro Pile:

One of my favourite strategies is to go for speed. To end the game on my terms. To take hold and bring it to an end before the opponent can really deploy their long-term strategy. Speed, not power.

This means three-piling. You need a few things for this to go right: the ability to get piles out, the ability to control when they empty, score enough points (and know how many that is), in the process. Usually, it also means doing something to slow your opponent down, as even mediocre Big Money decks are capable of scoring a reasonable number of points fairly quickly.

But WW, isn't this just a slog?

No. In a slog, at least how I'm thinking about it, you’re trying to get a matrix of VP points that is insurmountable. Your win condition is to get so many VP the opponent can never come back. In, contrast, aggro-pile decks aim to get the piles out and end the game before your opponent’s (typically superior) deck can get going enough to catch up with you. Your deck is not about scoring all the points possible, but rather about having all the pile control you can get, and having just enough pop to score a little more than the opponent.

Typically, you’re going to want your opponent to help you out in emptying at least one of the piles. Most often this comes from junking attacks (where, if they skip it, you’re going to crush them anyway - this is weakened significantly by the very strongest thinning). However, there are also some piles that just naturally you want to empty pretty fast - Fishing Village is a classic example.

Indeed, you generally need a combination of 2 enablers and/or naturally-emptying piles, and you will have time to knock the last one out by yourself. So Ruins AND curses works well, or a card like Fishing Village with either kind of junk, or some decent to nice gainer with a fast-emptying pile or junk.

Most often, you’ll be piling out with Duchies as that third pile. And you tend to start just hacking away at them near when there are a few gains left to 2 empty piles, and simply ride them hard until they’re gone.

It’s also possible to actually just blitz out piles, though this is quite a bit rarer. Ironworks is a key enabler for the rush, particularly with some Kingdom VP pile it can gain, since actually having 2 of your 3 piles be VP gives you obviously more points, which translates to a little more time. Stonemason is another big card here, as it can get rid of piles very fast. Same goes with Procession.

When playing against this kind of strategy, you typically want to not do something too fancy - that tends to be the number one way that Aggro Piles actually gets the time it needs. At the same time, you don’t want to touch Duchies at all, unless you’re either winning on the spot, completely locking them out (e.g. taking the penultimate Duchy with a substantial lead), or just contesting full bore in a mirror. 

Big Money tends to be a pretty bad matchup for this kind of deck, so you need to have a plan of defeating that as well. Indeed, Aggro Pile is a deck style which must always be very reactive to what your opponent is doing, and in most cases actually needs to have some kind of bailout plan as well - either you are an engine with an eye towards clamping down on the piles, or you have some kind of reasonable Big Money/Slog game-plan in case they go for points straightforwardly. It tends to be important to develop these fallback plans before comitting too hard to Aggro Pile.

Key Enablers in rough order from best to worst:

Junk: Ill-Gotten Gains (two piles by itself), Marauder, Young Witch, Cultist (which can sometimes be a second pile, but being this expensive is very risky), Mountebank, Sea Hag, Familiar, Soothsayer (though this is often more suited to Slogs)

Gainers: Stonemason, Procession, Ironworks, Border Village, Armory, Death Cart, Squire, Salvager, Workshop, etc. I want to point out City, as well, because if you can turn the corner on them at the right moment, it's often possible to slam down e.g. the Estate pile.

Empty-able Piles: Ruin, Curse, Stonemason, Fool's Gold, Squire, Hamlet, Duchess, Pawn, Pearl Diver (etc), often board-dependent, but things like Fishing Village, Ironmonger, etc that people just snap up at every chance because the cost is so low (and they’re so good)....






Example Games:
http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20151124/log.0.1448393618472.txt
Marauder, Cultist, Familiar - junk is flowing, you have multiple piles that are going to fall, so you can really start playing for the 3rd pile. I think Marauder over Cultist is very important here, since the spoils are good, drawing is less good (with a deck full of junk), and chaining is quite unlikely (and also has a chance to skip your Familiars. The important point is that treasures are good, which is very common in these kinds of games. My opponent shouldn't have bought the Duchy, but it's very unlikely they can get to 2 Colony and a Province in time, anyway.

http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?https://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20151127/log.0.1448643955753.txt
Here we have IGG. Trader provides some defense, but also a combo. Jester helps, and FV isn't too bad, either. Notably, Duchess provides a great 3rd pile as well.
  
http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?https://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20151127/log.0.1448655452593.txt
Young Witch can make both Curses and Banes empty, and with Familiar available, this is a good bit more likely. Hamlet is another third pile, and so some jockeying for positions should have happened. Pile awareness here allowed me to steal this one.

http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?https://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20151208/log.0.1449533322065.txt
Again, Curses and Ruins both running, Hunting Party is one of those stacks that tend to run, and we even have Stonemason for more shenanigans. 

http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?https://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20151230/log.0.1451490645872.txt
This one is all about piles that want to run (Highway, Market Square, Minion), plus the obscene power of Stonemason. In these kinds of games, you need to be very aware of what you need to do to run the game out, as well as what your opponents can do for the same.

http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?https://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20160107/log.0.1452205936848.txt 
Another example in the same vein as the previous.

http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?https://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20160107/log.0.1452191577234.txt
An example of the Procession style here. Very often you can process into process into mroe stuff into more stuff, emptying out LOTS of cards in a single turn. Note that you need to green pretty early to defend against your opponent doing do.

http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20151119/log.0.1447972595341.txt
You didn't expect me to leave you without an example of a classic Ironworks rush, did you? The raw speed and power is on display here, since even facing down Goons on a Colony board, and totally uncontested (which is correct unless you want to mirror and contest fully), I'm able to knock out all the piles (and even nab a duchy) for a blistering 54 points and end the game in a mere 16 turns.

Pile Lowering

In the game of Dominion, a question which often needs to be asked (admittedly, I don't see it getting asked all that much, part of why I want to write this article) is "When do I want to lower piles (or not)?" This is a bit of a tricky question to answer in the abstract sense, as every situation is different, but there are some general principles which can help you out - principles which I often see violated.

1. If you have a forced win by emptying piles, take it.

   This one's pretty straightforward, though sometimes a bit hard to see. Knowing which piles are low, and your capability of scoring points while simultaneously emptying piles, can help. This is something to think about at the start of your turn. Awareness helps a lot.

2. The player with the higher-quality deck wants the piles to be higher

   The reasoning here is fairly straightforward. The longer the game goes, the more the player with the better deck is able to enjoy the advantage offered to her by said better deck. A lot of people think that lowering piles helps the player who is ahead in points - this is generally true, but not hugely so. Usually better deck quality aligns with lower in points, but in the cases that isn't true, the player who is doubly behind usually likes lowering the piles, because there is a better chance of some fluke making the difference in a short game (one unlikely-but-possible dud hand, say).
   
   Perhaps more commonly, I see players start to lower some piles to "set up the win next turn" or two turns down the line, etc. This can be fine, and it's usually winning, but people are often in much more of a rush to do so than they should be, i.e. it increases their chance to lose.

Dominion: Plotting a Road to Victory

There isn't a ton going on here from a big picture strategic view. Some form of engine is going to clearly take the game down, with Horn of Plenty as a payload really shoring things up. There is definitely a question of which engine to go for (or perhaps you prefer the phrasing of how to build the engine), but the general principles will be the same.

As the game turns out, my opponent gets one Envoy and then sticks mostly to Hunting Parties with a few Stables, whereas I focus on getting lots of Envoys and supplementing them with Inn, fueling this strategy with a Workshop to up the number of Envoys. The question of when to go for Counterfeit and HoP amongst the 5s you want is a quite interesting one. My gut reaction, looking at things now, is that I would like to build the draw based on Stables, with a few HP sprinkled in. There are a few concerns with this plan, though - first of all, you are trashing treasures out from under yourself, which hurts Stables, and second, Stables, HP, Copper, Silver, Gold, Counterfeit, and Horn of Plenty only bring you up to a total of 7 unique cards. So things are a bit tricky - however, I don't think this is too much of a concern, and I believe that a Workshop to gobble up more silvers once the deck is getting closer to being under control can actually provide a solution to both problems.

Regardless of this, that's not the real reason I want to talk about this game. Instead, I want to jump to my eleventh turn . I dud out here, which is pretty unlikely, but not crazily so, and this plus my opponent's first-player advantage allows him to go up to six Horns of Plenty on his twelfth turn. We reach a first interesting positioning question here: should he have taken the seventh Horn? The main factor for is actually a denial plan - with only three, I can't fire off to end the game all that easily. The main call against are that getting another component makes his own deck far more reliable. In general, I am not a big fan of denial plans, but in this case, I think it was the right way to go. It was, however, a reasonably close call, and on an axis which can be difficult to see during the midst of the game - and I am not even certain which way is correct now - so this decision cannot be hugely faulted.

On my opponent's turn 13, he duds out. This helps me a lot. Still, on my own 13th turn, I am in a weird spot. Despite having picked up the 4th horn... 4 simply aren't enough. If I Counterfeit a Horn, I will have $7, can gain 5 Provinces, and... really not be able to quite put the game away. It's very tempting to go for this in a situation like this, because it looks really hard for my opponent to overtake and win in his next turn. He can't draw everything, and even if he could, he has 7 gains plus $10 and 2 buys, which is only enough to tie. On the other hand, if he just chooses to not go for it - as a good player should - then I am not doing much in the mean-time, and he would be able to pick up a bit more draw and another counterfeit or two and have his turn get quite a bit bigger. It's not entirely hopeless for me, but if he is merely patient, I'm going to need very good luck. So I build up my draw and bide my time. Almost certainly, this is a  mistake from me, in the very least by not picking up another Counterfeit for more pile control. And probably I should actually have gone for it at this point, anyways, because I have some chances of stringing together enough to try to limp over the finish line, whereas this way, once again, with correct play I am probably lost.

Then we come to the pivotal turn, turn 14. My opponent draws his deck, sans a Horn of Plenty I am able to deny on the last Envoy play, and he goes for it. He cashes all of his Horns of Plenty in for provinces, buys another province, and an estate to top it off. It's actually a pretty clear mistake for him to not counterfeit Horn, though I had kept in mind that he couldn't double-gain Province that way, as the Horn was his 8th unique card. Still, the extra Duchy would have been pretty good for him. Of course, the big weakness of this plan is that his deck becomes substantially worse, particularly in his ability to control the game. And the biggest problem is that he just doesn't need to do this - since I didn't pick up any more economic components, my best possible next turn is going to be more or less the same as last turn, and that's probably not enough. In the mean-time, he can continue to grab more draw, along with another counterfeit or two, and an Inn, which will not only let him kick off his next turn reliably, but also lets him counterfeit HoP for 2 provinces. This would essentially guarantee him the ability to get 8 provinces his next turn, forcing me to go for it. And then he would have a relatively sure thing of mopping up afterwards.

Certainly, on my own 14th turn, I can't come back - it's just WAY too many points. But I do know that I don't have just tons of time - he has enough decent treasures that he will lock me out within the next few turns, at least. But there is no point in cashing the Horns in until the last possible moment, and so I continue to build, while gaining points where I need to - most notably, Silk Road off of Workshops.

On Turn 15, my opponent can even pick up Province number 7 as well as a duchy. But Silk Roads are not to be underestimated! I draw my deck, do some calculations... and win rather cleanly. Certainly it was good to be able to win then, as with a good draw, my opponent could have grabbed Counterfeit+Gold+either of his other treasures, and finished off the provinces, though as things fell, I could have had another turn.

The thing I want to highlight here is not panicking. I got behind by a HUGE amount, but I didn't turn in for points. So often, I see people do this - they get behind, they feel pressure, and the knee-jerk reaction is to catch up ASAP, feeling that the opponent is likely to close out the game if they don't. The problem is, you actually need to have a plan to win the game. If you massively close the gap, but you're still behind, then where did you get yourself? Generally, you want to wait more or less as long as you can to pull the trigger on your mega-turn. If your opponent is liable to go off, in a way that will lock you out, then you have to think about going for it. But if they're going to be able to win the long game after by being patient themselves... you pretty much need to hope for them to have a dud. And when behind, going for it in a way that won't bring you the lead does no good. Either way, you need to have a plan for being able to finish the game out, and think in terms of "What gives me the best chance to win by the time the game ends?" rather than "What gets me the best points gap?"

Assert Your Dominance When Winning

One (of many) important skills in Dominion, as in a lot of games, is being able to win the won game with as high a probability as possible. Little feels worse than letting a game you were way ahead in slip through the cracks. Giving advice on this is generally very difficult for Dominion, as every board is different, and every situation is different. There are, however, some general pieces of advice to give, and then some examples to demonstrate good lines of thinking.


Be alert for ways to end the game
This can mean grabbing 50% of the VP, setting up an unbreakable pin, emptying Colonies, or emptying Provinces. These are things to be aware of, of course, but in general people are pretty good about looking for them (though you do still need to be vigilant, as they are missed sometimes). The bigger thing, though, is looking at 3 pile endings. You want to know what piles are low, how many, and what ways there are of emptying them as fast as possible. Keep an eye for gainers, especially multi-gainers, like Stonemason and Procession. Also keep an eye on Curses, Ruins (especially with Death Cart), and Estates.


Generally be aware of how close the end of the game is
You need to know whether you're planning for a long game or a short game. Missing wins is a common mistake that people make, but probably even more common is people panicking and going for points too soon. "Piles feel low" can make people scared. You need to be concrete. How low are they really? Are they actually going to be emptied? If it isn't going to be in one turn, can your opponent realistically make the play to go after them over multiple turns, or will that hurt their deck too much? Sometimes the answer is, yes, they can go for it. But lots of times, they can't really. How much you want to play around having a bad turn or two is a function of how reliable your deck is and how far ahead you are.


Know your role, and leverage your advantages
Are you ahead because you have a very large points lead that is going to be hard to overcome? Or is it because your deck is much better? When the former is true, you want to make sure that your opponent can't build up enough of an advantage in deck to overcome that. Generally this means you want to try to make the game short, though sometimes you keep your deck at a quality where you can still win the long game. Still other times you'll seek to 'cut their legs out' by attacking the piles they'd need for a comeback, which inhibits their ability to build (though I should warn that this is quite rare). When it's the latter, you want to make sure that this advantage will have the time and space to be developed and played out for your advantage. So play for the long game, and make sure you don't lose short. Of course, the most common way to lose short is by letting the game end short - and so  you want to make the game go long, by not blitzing down the piles.



Ask yourself: How am I losing this game?
This is really the banner under which all the other things lie. Even the Penultimate Province Rule is just a piece of this line of thinking. This is the most difficult piece of advice to give with specificity. It varies very much from board to board, and from game to game. But when you're ahead, you need to know why you are ahead. What is it based on? And why is that important? You need to make sure that you try to make your advantages are important, and try to make sure that any advantages your opponents have are not. And look to mitigate the ability for a bad shuffle, or a perfect shuffle from your opponent, to knock you down. Sometimes that means building consistency. Sometimes it means just ending the game as fast as possible.

One final word of advice before I switch to examples: make sure that in your attempts to secure your position, you aren't losing so much time trying to be safe that you let the core of your advantage slip.


Now, on to examples!




http://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?/20150424/log.514b5511e4b0b79c883b5e3b.1429907945889.txt
In this game, if we look at the position after turn 25, I have a superior quality deck. The way I lose the game is... to let that deck deteriorate. It doesn't take very much to lose reliability. I need to start sending lots of junk over, and I need to up my economy so I can by colonies, but the biggest thing that can shoot me down is losing my consistency - and so my Soothsayer, despite accomplishing the first two goals, is actually quite a bad purchase. If I sanely buy a gold, work my way up in money, and just buy a curse at some moment, I would have had plenty of time to set myself up without my deck ever getting too big. The way I played, I still had reasonable chances, but I gave myself way more chances to lose than were necessary, and it bit me.

http://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?/20150425/log.514b5511e4b0b79c883b5e3b.1429978545317.txt
This is a pretty classic Golden Deck game. I get myself set up on turn 11 or so. My opponent still has a little cleaning up to do, though at the precise moment he has a little tiny lead. Throughout the rest of this game, I just pound the Platinum into submission. The point here is that this way, my opponent simply has no counterplay, and the longer the game goes, the more non-perfect draws he will have, and I can continue my advantage. I could definitely have run the colonies out sooner, but there was just no need, as this way I extended my lead maximally.

http://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?/20150425/log.514b5511e4b0b79c883b5e3b.1429985222956.txt
Here we just look at the last turn. I have a small lead, and I am aware that 2 piles are out (Duchy and Market Square). I am in a good position, but there are of course lots of ways to lose - opponent can spike a Province or hit a Duchy, for instance. So while piling the Estates is very likely to lead me to a win, knowing that I can end it when I draw the Gold off Altar-ing my Overgrown Estate pays off - Death Cart and the ruins pile is a typical thing to watch for.

http://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?/20150427/log.514b5511e4b0b79c883b5e3b.1430164409576.txt
Another instance of pile awareness - here I lunge for the last curses

http://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?/20150427/log.514b5511e4b0b79c883b5e3b.1430167943928.txt
Here, an awareness of my deck lets me know I can simply go for it to end it on turn 9(!) by... running the Provinces! Key was knowing that the last card was a silver so that I could draw it up and Forge a Province for the win.

http://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?/20150428/log.514b5511e4b0b79c883b5e3b.1430228157511.txt
Another example of knowing that I can get the Provinces out.

http://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?/20150601/log.514b5511e4b0b79c883b5e3b.1433174993893.txt
Here, my trashing lets me build a pretty clean deck advantage over my opponent, with a reliable engine. I am able to catch up in points as well, getting me to the spot where I lead in all sectors. Then I apply the 'how am I losing this game' thought process. And the way I lose is to have my engine get unreliable - there is only one buy anyway, so extra money does nothing. Solution? Remake Silvers into engine components. This makes me super reliable, and I can take the points lead at leisure, only moving forward when safe and/or necessary.

http://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?/20150618/log.514b5511e4b0b79c883b5e3b.1434639648661.txt
In this game, I get out to what I believed to be a big lead. However, my opponent was massing Governor pieces. Despite it being a Colony game, I asked myself how I was losing, and came up with my opponent emptying the Provinces. So I got 4 - my opponent doesn't have the capabilities to overcome me by catching up on Provinces himself, so after this play, I'm pretty comfortably in control.


Finally, a pair of Possession/Masquerade games. The key here is that, in both, the way to go is pretty clearly to get possessing your opponent set up, as the engines are good (this isn't always the case of course, but it is here). Given that, the way either player wins or loses is going to be... to stop your opponent from possessing you, at which point you can pretty much put the game away at leisure. Thus, when possessing them you make them pass... their possessions, first of all, then what lets them re-buy possession (usually potion), and only then their provinces. (Obviously, if the game is right about to end, you might have to make an exception).

In the first game, here, doing this efficiently nets me a quick resignation. But in the second, here, my opponent gives me many more cracks at the apple than necessary (which unfortunately for me, I miss on, but still, this is something to look at).

Practical Advice: Playing From Behind

Game Log

 

...with Shelters. Witch into Rebuild seems pretty clear here.

My opponent gets a 5/2, opens Witch/Estate.

I have 3/4 and get Silver/Feast. Tuns 3 and 4, my Feast becomes a Witch, and I get another feast and a Silver. Going into turn 6, my Feast and Witch are colliding in my hand, and the decks look like this:

At this point, I feel very far behind. I hit $4, and I make what I feel is a pretty bold choice: (with hovel in hand) I buy a Silk Road. What?! Well, tactically, I'm not sure the time is right. But the idea, the strategic thought, is something I am very much on board with.

The concept here is that, though I am very far behind in any case, I'm especially down in the long game. So I make the decision to try to turn the game as short as possible, such that there is more randomness and luck (or less time for the overall quality of his deck to shine through). This should be really losing, but on the other hand, I think everything is really losing, this gives me better random chances, and most importantly, it gives my opponent the chance to make mistakes.

The first of these comes on turn 13, when he buys a Duchy. This is a classic trap in 2 ways: "I'm playing Rebuild, better get Duchies pretty soon" (which is often not true in non-mirrors, Colony games, and various odd scenarios), and "my opponent is playing to end the game quickly, better get points soon in case that happens" (you're often better served by not helping them end things). At that point in the game, he had 3 Rebuild, 1 Estate, 1 Province, and 1 Duchy. If he just focuses on getting those cards up to colony, he's going to have a near-insurmountable lead. He can then finish off by grabbing 1 more green card LATE. As is, the Duchy both slows him down, and it helps me get the piles empty to end the game sooner. This should have been a Rebuild. A similar situation occurs on turn 15, except at that point, he's also locking in one of his own Estates by emptying the LAST Duchy.

He follows this up by grabbing Silvers, in a game where he has very little chance of actually making $8 (though to be fair, actually buying Province would essentially seal the game). By his turn 19, through some luck as well as my mad greening and his missteps, he is actually down by one point, with $6 in hand. He makes a final mistake by buying the last Silk Road, which is only worth 1 point to him. I have one of my Rebuilds, Duchy->Province, and buy the final curse to win.


Let's dig a little as to why this Silk Road is a mistake. There is first of all the general principle of him wanting the game to go long, and this helping me close it out. But specifically here, if I have Rebuild, I can upgrade Duchy into Province or Province into Colony and just win; also, if I have Witch at all, I win immediately - and I am about even money to have at least one of these things happen for me (I also have some very small chance of being able to buy Province). Beyond that, I will probably buy an Estate. If I do that, my one point lead would let him win if: he Rebuilds a Duchy or Province (which requires him both drawing Rebuild and nabbing the correct hit off of its play) OR he has his only Witch AND (in either case) can buy Estate (or, of course, having enough money to buy Province - really unlikely considering he's just seen 3 Silvers). Note that he can't really buy an Estate that turn himself, since even if I were to whiff AGAIN the next turn, one more Estate from me would end the game. But even not buying that Estate, an extra one from me the following turn is worth 6 for me, really putting the squeeze on him (though he would indeed have some chance).

Alternatively, if he doesn't get the Silk Road (instead getting... I'll get to this in a second - for now, let's assume nothing, though that's obviously not strictly best), then what? Ok, well, I can win my next turn if I get Rebuild AND Witch. If I only get Rebuild, turning Estate into the last Silk Road and buying Curse would let me win by a point, but more likely I would upgrade an expensive green card, and then buy the best green card I could afford. If I get only Witch, I win if I can also hit $4. Failing this, I just buy the best green card I can, which gives him a turn to score some points (but he most likely NEEDS to do so right then). Alright, so what should he buy? Estate. It gives me no new wins, scores as many points as Silk Road, doesn't hurt his deck (as he'll never see it again), and there are some scenarios where I can't buy the last Curse, or he can GIVE me the last curse with Witch on his next turn, where it actually turns a loss into a win. Would it have changed the outcome of the game? As it turns out, almost certainly no (I would have been able to buy the last SR instead of curse on my turn 20, which gives him another turn, but he needs to Shanty Town into Witch into a good Rebuild, or ST into two good Rebuilds, which is very very unlikely). And in general, it's very unlikely to. But playing the slim percentages is something you have to do. More to the point, without the earlier too-soon-duchies, I probably would have simply had not enough time to get all the gains I need, he would have been able to get his Rebuilds going to the point where he has a few more points, and then I'd be locked out. These kinds of situations don't come up often, because I put myself into a position where I'm likely to lose, and quickly, which is something people don't like to do. But the volatility turns out to be my best chance, and as the player in the lead, you really need to be vigilant and know which way to turn, because if you aren't precise, you really can open up the door.

Endgame Dive #1

Game Log

Not a ton to talk about here. The basic strategy is to go for thinning your deck into a Grand Market-based engine to power through the endgame. I prefer using Lookout into Junk Dealer (depending a bit on draws), whereas my opponent aims for pure Junk Dealer. I still like my plan overall, but I doubt it makes a big difference.

Anyway, what gets interesting here is the endgame. Between his turn 14 and mine, our decks look like this:

...where one of my Merchant Ships is in play. Given that I can't profitably play Junk Dealer, I have exactly $24 in my deck. If I'm unable to draw the deck without Apprenticing a Silver, I'll be down to $22, at which point I can double Province and Duchy, and hope to do the same the next turn. My opponent's optimal turn can net him a free Province gain off Graverobber with $17 left over. In this case, I would have a decent chance of double Province + Duchy the next turn, and, as we're assuming I don't have a good hand here, basically a sure thing that I can at least Double Province and (double) Estate, which puts me in pretty good shape, as Triple Province lets me Double to win, which is close to assured, so he would have to go for double Province + Duchy + Estate(s), which leaves his deck somewhat crippled - it's important to note that he is running out of fuel for his Apprentice and Graverobber in order to get this to work.

The better news, though, is that I'm actually a favourite (about 60%) to connect an Apprentice with either the other Apprentice or (ideally) the Junk Dealer, at which point I can triple Province and take a big lead. I could be in pretty bad shape if I miss my Apprentice entirely this turn (though even then, hitting enough GMs and getting MS in play is okay at least), but this is fairly unlikely.

As it turns out, I did hit the optimal Apprentice -> Junk Dealer. My opponent does have his ideal hand in response, and gets a Province and three Duchies. It may seem at first as though this is a mistake, but I don't think it is. The problem is, I need to not be able to double Province for him to have a chance. If I draw an Apprentice at all, it's just over (this is what happens, and I chop a Province). I'm 73% to do that. On top of this, in a pretty substantial portion of the 27%, I am going to be able to double Province anyway, as what I've drawn will largely have been economy. But his alternatives aren't great: if I am able to connect Apprentice with Province, I am going to win anyway. And in any other case I am double Provincing, I'm going to be taking a near-insurmountable lead anyway. So it seems he has to take a risk. The only other question, then, is whether to go greedier, and take another Province, giving himself a better chance of finishing the game off the next turn. But this really seems too greedy, as I ned to have a hand of exactly all 3 Provinces, no Grand Markets, and no Apprentice, or I would be able to get the last Province and just win.

Quick Game #1: Turn 8 Estate

Game Log

Setup:

Not much to comment on in the general case here. Apothecary engines are the obvious best thing, with Stonemason, Warehouse, and Mystic all as quite good support. We mirror, with me going second.

I want to join the game after the Apothecaries ran out, which happened on my opponents seventh(!) turn:

As we can see, I have a fairly small-looking, but quite significant advantage, based mostly on my two extra Apothecaries. This was more or less down to pure dumb luck in getting very nice connections of 4p to Stonemason into double Apothecary. It's also worth noting that I've Stonemasoned a Stonemason into a pair of Coppers. Copper is easier to draw in my deck of 6 Apothecaries, though of course this is going to be offset by having a higher number of non-drawing cards. So if we take the overall draw-ability as about a wash, the big advantage here is that I have just a little more money - and enough to buy a Province.

But at this point, I am already in Endgame mode. Apothecaries are an empty pile. Four Warehouses are gone, and Stonemasons are both lowered and very easy to run. The game can't end right away, but jockeying for position is something you already need to think about. On my next turn, I draw my deck (sans one estate). I turn my potion into a pair of Warehouses, for improved reliability (and the key thing here is to discard Coppers - later Apothecaries become AMAZING). And then I have 9 - I could buy a Province, and that's probably ok, but I feel like it doesn't position me well for a long game. And while I am already considering how piling out can happen here, it isn't going to happen just yet, so I do need to be prepared for a longer game. For this reason, I take Stonemason for a Festival and a Mystic. The Mystic is a significantly better card for the deck, as it's going to hit a huge percentage of the time, but the Festival gives me access to an extra buy, an extra Stonemason play, and TONS more pile control. It isn't terribly common that two different cards off a Stonemason overpay is the correct way to go, but I think it's definitely the right call here, as the festival is really needed right away, and the Mystic is a clear step better after that.

My opponent counters with an identical turn.

And then I have a complete dud, producing only $3. I buy an Estate. This is actually absolutely critical. The game can already end at any time. Overpaying for Stonemason to get Warehouses (only 2 left) and then again for Stonemasons themselves (4 left right now, down to 3 after the Warehouse overpay) will end the game. So the point is actually pretty important to hold off pressure from my opponent doing this (he could potentially still win this turn, but it would require a near-perfect draw to empty AND score 2+ points), as well as to be able to more easily threaten this myself. On turn 9, my opponent builds more, getting another Mystic and a Cellar. It's possible he should try to score some points, in order to block me, especially considering that my previous-turn dud means I'm pretty likely to go off this turn. He's in a very tough spot, though, because scoring points is going to continue to hurt his long-game chances.

In any case, I do have the monster hand I need, and finish it out.