Practical Advice: Playing From Behind

Game Log

 

...with Shelters. Witch into Rebuild seems pretty clear here.

My opponent gets a 5/2, opens Witch/Estate.

I have 3/4 and get Silver/Feast. Tuns 3 and 4, my Feast becomes a Witch, and I get another feast and a Silver. Going into turn 6, my Feast and Witch are colliding in my hand, and the decks look like this:

At this point, I feel very far behind. I hit $4, and I make what I feel is a pretty bold choice: (with hovel in hand) I buy a Silk Road. What?! Well, tactically, I'm not sure the time is right. But the idea, the strategic thought, is something I am very much on board with.

The concept here is that, though I am very far behind in any case, I'm especially down in the long game. So I make the decision to try to turn the game as short as possible, such that there is more randomness and luck (or less time for the overall quality of his deck to shine through). This should be really losing, but on the other hand, I think everything is really losing, this gives me better random chances, and most importantly, it gives my opponent the chance to make mistakes.

The first of these comes on turn 13, when he buys a Duchy. This is a classic trap in 2 ways: "I'm playing Rebuild, better get Duchies pretty soon" (which is often not true in non-mirrors, Colony games, and various odd scenarios), and "my opponent is playing to end the game quickly, better get points soon in case that happens" (you're often better served by not helping them end things). At that point in the game, he had 3 Rebuild, 1 Estate, 1 Province, and 1 Duchy. If he just focuses on getting those cards up to colony, he's going to have a near-insurmountable lead. He can then finish off by grabbing 1 more green card LATE. As is, the Duchy both slows him down, and it helps me get the piles empty to end the game sooner. This should have been a Rebuild. A similar situation occurs on turn 15, except at that point, he's also locking in one of his own Estates by emptying the LAST Duchy.

He follows this up by grabbing Silvers, in a game where he has very little chance of actually making $8 (though to be fair, actually buying Province would essentially seal the game). By his turn 19, through some luck as well as my mad greening and his missteps, he is actually down by one point, with $6 in hand. He makes a final mistake by buying the last Silk Road, which is only worth 1 point to him. I have one of my Rebuilds, Duchy->Province, and buy the final curse to win.


Let's dig a little as to why this Silk Road is a mistake. There is first of all the general principle of him wanting the game to go long, and this helping me close it out. But specifically here, if I have Rebuild, I can upgrade Duchy into Province or Province into Colony and just win; also, if I have Witch at all, I win immediately - and I am about even money to have at least one of these things happen for me (I also have some very small chance of being able to buy Province). Beyond that, I will probably buy an Estate. If I do that, my one point lead would let him win if: he Rebuilds a Duchy or Province (which requires him both drawing Rebuild and nabbing the correct hit off of its play) OR he has his only Witch AND (in either case) can buy Estate (or, of course, having enough money to buy Province - really unlikely considering he's just seen 3 Silvers). Note that he can't really buy an Estate that turn himself, since even if I were to whiff AGAIN the next turn, one more Estate from me would end the game. But even not buying that Estate, an extra one from me the following turn is worth 6 for me, really putting the squeeze on him (though he would indeed have some chance).

Alternatively, if he doesn't get the Silk Road (instead getting... I'll get to this in a second - for now, let's assume nothing, though that's obviously not strictly best), then what? Ok, well, I can win my next turn if I get Rebuild AND Witch. If I only get Rebuild, turning Estate into the last Silk Road and buying Curse would let me win by a point, but more likely I would upgrade an expensive green card, and then buy the best green card I could afford. If I get only Witch, I win if I can also hit $4. Failing this, I just buy the best green card I can, which gives him a turn to score some points (but he most likely NEEDS to do so right then). Alright, so what should he buy? Estate. It gives me no new wins, scores as many points as Silk Road, doesn't hurt his deck (as he'll never see it again), and there are some scenarios where I can't buy the last Curse, or he can GIVE me the last curse with Witch on his next turn, where it actually turns a loss into a win. Would it have changed the outcome of the game? As it turns out, almost certainly no (I would have been able to buy the last SR instead of curse on my turn 20, which gives him another turn, but he needs to Shanty Town into Witch into a good Rebuild, or ST into two good Rebuilds, which is very very unlikely). And in general, it's very unlikely to. But playing the slim percentages is something you have to do. More to the point, without the earlier too-soon-duchies, I probably would have simply had not enough time to get all the gains I need, he would have been able to get his Rebuilds going to the point where he has a few more points, and then I'd be locked out. These kinds of situations don't come up often, because I put myself into a position where I'm likely to lose, and quickly, which is something people don't like to do. But the volatility turns out to be my best chance, and as the player in the lead, you really need to be vigilant and know which way to turn, because if you aren't precise, you really can open up the door.

Instructional Game #5: Maximizing Draws

Game Log

So there's a lot of Trash-for-benefit to note here, between Stonemason, Salvager, and Forge, with both Border Village and Cultist to enable that. The Tactician + Forge combo means that you should be able to clean your deck up - and this is important. You still need to go for Cultist here, for two reasons: First, getting too far behind in the Ruins split is going to be problematic, as though you can eventually clean up, it's going to take a lot more time. Second, the deck does need draw, and Cultist is by far the most efficient way to get it here (well, one could argue Tactician, but that's not repeatable).

With that layout, we enter the game. I open Salvager/Silver. You might be tempted by Spice Merchant here, but I want more money early, to get my Cultist, have a chance at double Cultist by spiking 7, and have decent chances at hitting 6 for Border Village into Cultist. Further, the Copper trashing may be less important here than normal, given that Forge will hopefully clean that up anyway.

I want to loop back to Border Village here for a second. Normally, the card is something you actually wouldn't want in your Cultist decks, as it can be drawn dead, you aren't very likely to draw them in the right order, and especially important for cultist, it hurts the chaining aspect. Here, though, I am planning on cleaning up, and especially, there's lots of Trash for Benefit.


The game progresses smoothly - my opponent is clearly on the same basic plan as me. I don't get to my Cultists at very nice points in the shuffle, and it might be easy to think I am falling behind for that reason. But on the other hand, I am hitting my money slots pretty well, gaining better cards. This is easy to underestimate, particularly by feel in-game, but in reality, my draws are really just exceptional. After my opponent's seventh turn, our decks look as follows:

We can see that I've just been drawing better than my opponent here. It's somewhat slow for me to get my Cultists online, but he's hardly been better, and to compensate, I have trashed an extra Estate, and more importantly, I have the next turn. With that turn, I get three Cultists fired off, making $7. I am significantly ahead, but it's really important to play precisely in these cases, to maximize your chances, as the luck can turn at any point. And there are lots of options. The main ones here are Forge, Border Village + 5-cost, or Stonemason into two 5-costs. I go for Stonemason-Cultist-Tactician. There are 6 ruins left at this point, so I don't want to abandon that split and pressure entirely. I also don't want to go double Cultist though, because 6 Ruins isn't so many, and I want to start setting up for clearing out. Finally, extra Border Village just doesn't do enough for me here.

The Ruins split ends up at 5-5, and my draws are good for the next couple turns. More importantly, my opponent, who is still playing quite well, misses his Forge on his Tactician turn. Thus, I have used my superior draws to set myself up that, even when I whiff on turns 13 and 14, by my next Tactician turn, on 15, I still have an advantage. And given my thin deck, and all the trash-for-benefit, I am on the prowl, and find the winning cascade of gains that Stonemason so often engenders. This is one last point of precision - just gaining some points would probably put me in very good position, but given the explosiveness of the board, there is some chance that my opponent could make some play making mid-turn gains and pull out some incredible comeback. Slamming the door when possible is something you always need to be on the lookout for, and take when you can get.